The Texans were probably the least likely division winner to get to the second round considering how they had played over the last few months of the season. But while their 32-12 wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers was as impressive as it was surprising, facing the two-time defending champion Chiefs in Kansas City will be an enormous step up in class.
Now, beating them isn’t necessarily impossible. The Chiefs aren’t the offensive juggernaut they once were (they averaged a respectable, but middling 24.1 points per game). They are a defense-powered team with an all-world quarterback, which is why they were in so many close games and won most of them (They were 11-0 in games decided by one score or less).
The Texans were 7-5 in one-score games and they do actually have a signature win that might show they can compete with the Chiefs. They beat the second-seeded Buffalo Bills 23-20 back on Oct. 6. But that was in Houston and it took the worst game of the season for Bills quarterback Josh Allen (9 for 30, 131 yards, 1 touchdown), the best game of the season from Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (28 of 38, 331 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) and a 59-yard field goal from Texans kicker Ka′imi Fairbairn as time expired.
Can they expect a similar set of miracles against a well-rested Chiefs team in K.C. where, oh by the way, the long-range forecast is calling for temperatures in the teens next weekend? Anything is possible. And Stroud was outstanding in the wild-card round, completing 22 of 33 passes for 282 yards with a touchdown and an interception. And their defense did torture Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert picking off four of his passes (after he threw only three interceptions in the regular season).
But Herbert is no Patrick Mahomes. And as the Chiefs showed all season long, they’re battle-tested, still dangerous, and shouldn’t be counted out by anyone yet.
3. Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at 2. Buffalo Bills (14-4) — Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
There probably will come a point where midnight strikes on Jayden Daniels time as the bell of the NFL ball. But the Commanders rookie quarterback is not ready to end his party yet.
Daniels’ playoff debut wasn’t his finest performance, but it was enough for him to do what he has done so often this season — find a way to lead the Commanders to a win. Their defense shut down what had been a high-octane Buccaneers passing attack, and then Daniels managed to do the rest, leading them to a 23-20 win that was sealed when Zane Gonzalez doinked in a game-winning, 37-yard field goal off the right upright as time expired.
Of course, for winning his first playoff game — and giving the Commanders franchise a postseason win for the first time in 19 years — Daniels’ reward is a trip to Detroit to face the dangerous and motivated Lions, who have been a heat-seeking missile of sorts since they blew their halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game last year. They’re the highest-scoring team in the NFL and ranked seventh in points allowed. And of course, they are very battle-tested after their deep playoff run one year ago.
Perhaps most importantly, especially to the Commanders, the Lions are a powerful rushing team, that averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game this season and are hoping for a boost from the potential return of injured running back David Montgomery. Washington had the third-worst run defense in the league, allowing 137.5 yards per game.
That seems like the seeds of a mismatch, but who knows how it’ll affect the Commanders because they are running on the high energy of youth. It’s not just Daniels, either. It’s the whole franchise, experiencing a success that it hasn’t had in decades. Daniels has helped make them a top-10 offense, and kept them hot, finishing off the season with five straight wins.
But most importantly they are a team that is currently playing without fear, because they know that in the first year of what coach Dan Quinn called a “recalibration,” they literally have nothing to lose. They’re going to need to remember that, and keep playing like that, if they have any hopes of knocking off the NFC’s top seed.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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